Retail natural gas and electric rates may remain constant or vary depending on each resident’s energy supply contract terms.ĭuring the winter, DOER publishes weekly pricing for heating oil and propane in Massachusetts as part of our participation in the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP). Additionally, though many heating oil and propane customers buy supplies ahead of winter and refuel as needed, our estimate does not account for heating oil purchased prior to winter. While propane and heating oil prices go up and down throughout the winter, DOER provides an average heating season price in this report. Changes in crude oil and wholesale heating oil prices pass through to the retail heating oil price much more quickly as a result, the heating oil price estimate is subject to heightened uncertainty. These decreases in wholesale fuel costs will result in lower retail electricity and retail natural gas prices - the price residents will pay through their utility bills.ĭOER provides estimates for heating fuel prices based on currently available wholesale and retail energy pricing. The EIA 2023 Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts lower wholesale energy prices - the price fuel and electricity suppliers charge - for the upcoming winter as compared to the 2022/2023 winter heating season. Forecast of winter conditions and expected energy useĪccording to the United States Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), there is continued uncertainty in global markets impacting energy prices and supply levels. In prior years, the heating season has been defined as October through March the change is being made due to low heating demand during October and changes in data reporting by the United States Energy Information Administration (US EIA). Throughout this report, both winter and heating season mean the period between November and March (e.g., 2023/2024 heating season is November 2023 to March 2024). However, due to high uncertainty, estimates in this report are subject to change and should not be used by households to determine a specific budget for heating costs for the upcoming winter. This report is being provided to help households prepare for energy bills more generally and assist state partners in providing adequate resources for households in the Commonwealth. This report presents estimated price, consumption, and expenditure for the winter season based on the latest available data. Massachusetts offers a wide variety of incentives to increase energy savings year round and help with heating bills visit the ‘ Help with your heating bill’ section.ĭOER publishes this annual heating report to help residents understand market conditions for home heating.The cost of heating for residential customers is expected to be 0.5% higher for homes heating with natural gas, 10% higher for heating oil, and 8% for propane. Household heating costs this winter are projected to be higher than last winter for all heating fuel sources except electricity due to higher expected consumption.The significant decrease in electric rates is predicted to result in 20% lower energy costs for electric heating, even with colder temperatures.The upcoming winter is projected to be 7.3% colder than last year’s moderate winter, increasing the expected consumption of heating fuel sources.Despite these lower prices, overall heating expenditures are expected to be higher due to a colder winter and higher consumption. Massachusetts is expected to experience lower retail prices for energy this winter, except for propane, driven by lower wholesale fuel and electricity prices verses last winter. The following key points of the report are discussed in more detail below:
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